I always read everything Thomas Sowell writes. His RSS feed is on my site so you can also enjoy his clear thinking. All his articles are outstanding, which is a bit of a curse, because that means they are all average. Some of his articles surpass his normal brilliance and these are the ones I post.
His recent article “Stormy Weather and Politics“, is outstanding. He talks about global warming theoretical models and how they can be fudged to fit the desired result. Click on the article and read it all. Here are some excerpts from the article if you can’t.
-“The ultimate test of any theoretical model is not how loudly it is proclaimed but how well it fits the facts. Climate models that have an unimpressive record of fitting the facts of the past or the present are hardly a reason for us to rely on them for the future.”
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-“Putting together a successful model — of anything — is a lot more complicated than identifying which factors affect which outcomes….. the challenge is to determine precisely how those factors interact with each other. That is a lot easier said than done when it comes to climate.“
-“Everyone can agree, for example, that the heat of the sunlight is greater in the tropics than in the temperate zones or near the poles. But, the highest temperatures ever recorded in Asia, Africa, North America or South America were all recorded outside — repeat, OUTSIDE — the tropics.”
-“None of this disproves the scientific fact that sunlight is hotter in the tropics. But it does indicate that there are other factors which go into temperatures on earth.”
-“American cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas often hit summer temperatures of 110 degrees or more, because they are located where there are not nearly as many clouds during the summer as are common in most other places, including most places in the tropics. The highest temperatures on earth have been reached in Death Valley, California, for the same reason, even though it is not in the tropics”.
-“Putting clouds into climate models is not simple, because the more the temperature rises, the more water evaporates, creating more clouds that reflect more sunlight back out into space. Such facts are well known, but reducing them to a specific and reliable formula that will predict global temperatures is something else.”
-“Meteorology has many facts and many scientific principles but, at this stage of its development, weather forecasts just a week ahead are still iffy. Why then should we let ourselves be stampeded into crippling the American economy with unending restrictions created by bureaucrats who pay no price for being wrong?”
Tags: Climate Change, Climate Models, Global Warming?, Politics vs Reality, Theoritical Scientific Models, Thomas Sowell
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