Must Reads For The Week 2/11/17

Human Action Beats Stats In The Super Bowl, by Jeff Deist, at mises.org. Being able to predict the outcome of events relies on how many variables are constant. When human beings are the variables, the predictive nature of stats becomes less effective, if not impossible, because human beings are not constant. Who thought the Patriots were going to win when they were down 28-3? When you looked at the statistical possibilities, you had to conclude there was no way. The face that individual human actors on the field and on the sidelines were making the decisions in the second half made this impossibility all too real. If one of the Patriots 2 point conversions was not successful, or if the Falcons decision to pass late had been successful, the outcome could have been different. The clarity of hindsight allows us to judge if the decision was ultimately correct in bringing about the desired result. But at those particular moments, each decision maker, on the sideline or on the field, thought his action would bring about success, or he wouldn’t have taken his decision. People who say that they wouldn’t have made that decision are speculating about something that can’t be recreated. Can all the particular knowledge and experience of a particular person be recreated in another person? Can the situation at the moment the decision had to be made be recreated? No. It is pure speculation to say you would have taken a correct decision at these particular moments in this game. You may have taken a different decision but that doesn’t mean it would have been successful. There is also another variable that enters into whether a decision turns out as planned. The other team gets a vote on whether you are able to execute your decision as you’ve  planned it. Here is the lesson we should take away from the Super Bowl. If the coaches and the 11 players on one side of the ball can’t make their decisions turn out exactly as planned; Why would we think that the decisions by politicians and bureaucrats, that affect 330 individual actors (non constant variables) aka people, possibly turn out as planned? Thinking that politicians and bureaucrats could make better decisions for people than these people can make for themselves is ridicules. Third party decision making doesn’t work as well as allowing the decision to be taken by the individual most affected by the results of the decision.

Bill Belichick: Entrepreneur, by Tho Bishop, at mises.org. This is a great article about Bill Belichick’s decision making as the general manager and the coach of the Patriots. He has a skill set that makes him “…not only America’s greatest football mind, but one of its greatest entrepreneurs.”

There’s A Global Riot Against Psuedo-Experts”, Nassim Taleb Explains, “This Is Not About Fascism, at zerohedge.com. Excerpt from the article: “I often say that a mathematician thinks in numbers, a lawyer in laws, and an idiot thinks in words….I think you have to draw the conclusion that there is a global riot against pseudo-experts. I saw it with Brexit,  Nigel Farage….. said “the problem with the government was that none of them had ever had a proper job. Being a bureaucrat is not a proper job”.”…….. “When Trump was running for election, I said what he says makes sense to a grocery store owner. Because the grocery guy can say Trump is wrong because he can see where he is wrong. But with Obama, he can’t understand what he’s saying, so the grocery man doesn’t know where he is wrong.

Tightening The Money Supply Will Inevitably Lead To A Bust, by Frank Shostack, at mises.org. The last 8 years of a zero interest rate policy by The Fed, was intended to stop the correction (bust) of the housing bubble. But this housing bubble was caused by the previous money pumping by The Fed via their previous low interest rate policy. The bust is the correction. The correction is good for our economic future. But no one wants it to happen on their watch. In our present political climate, The Fed has a scapegoat in Trump if they want to be released from the blame of crashing the market.

US Government’s 2016 Net Loss “More Than Doubled” To $1 Trillion, at theburningplatform.com. Just another trillion dollar deficit that has to be paid back by the Federal Government taking the first fruits from future production.

Cash No Longer King: Europe Accelerates Move To Begin Elimination Of Paper Money, at zerohedge.com. Central planners want to control everything you do by making everything a digital transaction. Because of this many people will barter for goods and services in a black market system. Over all productivity will decrease which means the standard of living will also decrease. Central planning an economy doesn’t create more wealth. All it does is redistribute the lower of wealth produced by their interventions.

16 Fake News Stories Reporters Have Run Since Trump Won, at the federalist.com. No comment needed. Search this story (click here) and let me know if it is fake or real. I’m not quite sure either way.

CARTOONS from theburningplatform. (More Here)

 

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