Is The Recent Georgia Run Off Election A Portent For The 2018 Midterms?

Infographic model of USA congressional votes. Editable Sample.

The recent Georgia 6th district win by (R) Handel over (D) Ossoff was spun as a good omen by each side for their chances in the 2018 midterm congressional elections. We’re not going to make any predictions about 2018 because the election is a year and a half out and a lot can happen in an instant which can change the political landscape. So let’s analyze some numbers that exist today, and also look at some possible situations which may, or might not, influence 2018. Do you like the words may and might? These words suggest a subjective opinion. But the numbers are objective.

ANALYZING SOME NUMBERS

-A party needs 218 seats in the house to gain control. The D’s hold 193 seats. The D’s need to defeat 25 incumbant R’s, and win all 193 seats they presently hold to win control of the House.

-The D’s will need 51 seats to gain control of the senate because the Vice President (Pence) is the tie breaking vote. 34 senate seats are being contested in 2018. Of the 34 seats, 25 are held by D’s and 9 by R’s. So the D’s need to defeat 3 incumbant R’s and win all 25 seats they presently hold to win the House.

-The D’s thought they had a chance to flip the congressional seat in Georgia. They spent a record amount of money for one congressional seat. ( Democrats Get Crushed In Georgia Election Despite 7x Spending Advantage.) If they need to flip 25 seats held by the R’s in the House and 3 seats in the Senate, are they going to have enough money to fund each of these campaigns? But in order to win the minimum number of seats to win back the House and Senate they are going to have to target more than the minimum number (25 & 3), because losing just one seat spells doom.

-The D’s think that Hillary winning the popular vote by 2.86 million shows the majority of people agree with their vision for America. But if you look at California, New York and Massachusetts you get a different view of the numbers. Hillary won California by 4.27 million votes. She won New York by 1.74 million votes. She won Massachusetts by 1.0 Million votes. That is a 7.01 million vote advantage in three states. But it also means she lost the other 47 states by 4.15 million votes. If you take the .8 million advantage the R’s had in Texas the number shrinks to 3.35 million. Still the R’s have a broader base of support, while the D’s support is concentrated.

-The D’s hold a total of 193 house seats. Of those 39 are in California, 18 are in New York and 9 are in Massachusetts. So 66, or 34%, of their house seats are from these three states. This means they have 127 seats spread across 47 states. In most of these house seats the incumbant has an advantage because these districts have been gerrymandered. It may be difficult for the D’s to find enough competitive seats to win back the house.

-R’s control both chambers in 33 states, while D’s control both chambers in 13 states with 4 state chambers being split. (The R’s also have 33 state governors) The party in power in each state will be able to redraw the house districts after the 2020 census. The D’s have to win back control of some of these state chambers or it will be  more difficult to win control of the house after 2020.

-What about the senate? I’ve read (here) that R’s Flake from Arizona, Heller from Nevada and Cruz from Texas are vulnerable. But if the D’s don’t win all 25 of the seats they are defending, it doesn’t matter if they win these three seats. Of the 25 seats D’s have to defend, 12 are listed as vulnerable. But 10 of these are in states that voted for Trump in 2016. They are Nelson-Fla, Connelly-In, McCaskill-Mo, Tester-Mt, Heitkamp-ND, Brown-Oh, Casey-Penn, Manchin-WV, Baldwin-Wi and Stebenow-Mi.

CONCLUSION

Mathematically the D’s have an uphill battle to regain control of the house and the senate. But the unknown future is what will ultimately decide 2018. What are some of these unknown events that could affect political change? We can only speculate what they will be. Here are some of my speculations.

BIASED SPECULATION ABOUT UNKNOWN FUTURE EVENTS

(AKA MY BEST GUESSES)

-The economy will be the most important issue. As we know from history the economy, or the perception of how good or bad the economy is, will be at the top issue for each individual voter. The economy is not healthy right now. The financial bubble created by the Federal Reserve is over leveraged with a mountain of debt. The Fed is in the process of raising interest rates. It is also in the process of reducing Its balance sheet. This means it is not rolling over (refinancing) as much previous debt. Money is not being pumped into the financial market like it was when the Fed was in QE mode. This will eventually lead to a correction (recession). A recession is needed to correct the previous monetary interventions by the Federal Reserve over the last ten years. The Fed would like this correction to happen during Trump’s presidency because it thinks it will be able to deflect the blame away from its previous monetary policies and push the blame on Trump. They know the mainstream media will help with the blame game. The other thing that will help the Fed get away with this is the ignorance of the citizens when it comes to Fed policies.

The quote by Keynes on the top right of my web site says it all: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.

-Will Healthcare be an issue in 2018? Yes. But the people who got hammered under Obamacare because of the increased insurance costs, didn’t vote for Trump, as much as they voted against continuing Obamacare under a Clinton presidency. do you really think these voters will, 2 years after the fact, go back to the party that crushed them financially? I don’t think these voters will, 2 years after the fact, go back to the party that crushed them financially even if the R’s don’t repeal Obamacare, or pass a bill that is spun as a repeal of Obamacare, but really isn’t. These voters know the D’s have destroyed our healthcare system with Obamacare. They also know the D’s want to implement a single payer government run system. These  voters in the other 47 States know their only hope is to try to force the wimps in the R party to get rid of the policy that raised their health premiums higher than what they could afford. These people have been backed into a corner. And when an individual has been backed into a corner he will will fight because he has no other choice.

-The mainstream media has lost, and is continuing to lose, credibility. They don’t have the power they, and we, think they possess. If they had this kind of power, Trump wouldn’t have won the election. They won’t be successful in pushing the big government progressive propaganda of the left. I don’t think they realize what people outside of California, New York, Massachusetts and D.C. think of them. Many people see them as biased. There is enough access to information that most people don’t have to be propagandized anymore unless they want to be. They won’t be successful in pushing the big government progressive propaganda of the left as they were decades ago.

CONCLUSION

Your guess is as good as mine!

 

Related ArticleNew Gov. Healthcare Regulations Will Not Cure The Results Of Previous Gov. Regulations, at austrianaddict.com.

Related Article0% Interest Rate x Eight Years = The Fed’s ZIRP Doesn’t Work, at austrianaddict.com.

Related ArticleBias In The Unbiased Mainstream Media, at austrianaddict.com.

 

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