AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS ADDICT

The electoral college is what you need to look at to understand how the 2016 Trump vs. Hillary presidential election will turn out.

To win the presidency a candidate needs 270 electoral votes. When a candidate wins the popular vote in a particular state, he wins all the electoral votes from that state. The amount of electoral votes for each state is the sum of the congressional districts in each state plus the amount of Senators from each state which is 2.

I’ve looked at the last 4 presidential elections to see a pattern on how each state votes. There are solid Democrat and Republican states that are pretty much locks to vote the same way this year. Here is the list of these states and the number of electoral votes for each.

Vote Democrat

Washington -12, Oregon -7, California -55, Minnesota -10, Illinois -20, New York -29, Massachusetts -11, Connecticut -7, Rhode Island -4, New Jersey -14, Delaware -3, Maryland -10, Vermont -3, Maine -4, Hawaii -4, D.C. -3, Michigan -16, Wisconsin -10, Pennsylvania -20.

Total of 242 electoral votes. Need 28 to win.

Vote Republican

Texas -38, Louisiana -8, Mississippi -6, Alabama -9, Tennessee -11, Kentucky -8, West Virginia -5,  Arkansas -6, Missouri -10, Oklahoma -7, Kansas -6, Nebraska -5, South Dakota,-3, North Dakota -3, Montana -3, Idaho -4, Utah -6, Arizona -11,  Alaska -3, Indiana -11, South Carolina -9, Georgia -16,

Total of 188 electoral votes. Need 82 to win.

As you can see the Democrats have a built-in edge in winning every Presidential election.

Solid States That Could Possibly Be Flipped

I see three states for Democrats and three states for Republicans that you need to look at on election night to see how the election will turn out. These are the states in italics above. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania for the Dems, and Indiana, Georgia, and South Carolina for the Reps. If these states are really close, or vote opposite of the party they voted for the last 4 years, you will have an idea of how the election is going to turn out. If any of the other solid states go the other way, you’ll know who is going to win. But I don’t see any of the non italicized states flipping.

Marginal States

If the solid states stay with their party, we can now look at the marginal states to get an idea of how things are trending. There are three states that lean Democrat, and one state that leans Republican.

These states are New Hampshire -4, New Mexico -5, and Iowa -6, leaning Democrat. North Carolina -15, leans Republican.

Once again, if some of these states vote for the other party you have an idea how the election is going. I think Iowa could possibly go Republican.

If these states go the way they leaning, the Democrat candidate would have 257 electoral votes. He would only need 13 votes to win. The Republican candidate would have 203 electoral votes. He would need 67 to win.

Toss Up States

Florida -29, Ohio -18, Virginia -13, Colorado -9, and Nevada -6, are the 5 toss-up states that have voted for the presidential winner in the last 4 presidential elections, meaning they have voted twice for Dems and twice for Reps.

Since the Democrats would only need 13 electoral votes to win, if they take one from the group of Florida, Ohio, or Virginia they win. Even if they lose those three states, if they win both Colorado and Nevada they win.

The Republicans must win Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. If they sweep those three they still need to win either Colorado or Nevada to win the presidency.

What To Look For?

When you watch the election returns next Tuesday night, look for the toss-up and marginal states where the polls close at 7:00 or 7:30 eastern standard time. These states are New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. If these states early results show a trend toward one side or the other, or if these states are called early for one side or the other, you will know how the election will turn out and will be able to go to bed early.

Conclusion

No one knows how this is going to turn out because this is such a different kind of election. On the one hand you have a political insider who is playing the game of politics according to Hoyle. On the other hand you have a wild card with no political experience who isn’t playing the game of politics according to Hoyle. Anything can, and probably will, happen in these next five days. So buckle up and hold on tight.

This entry was posted on November 3, 2016 at 2:26 am and is filed under Econ. 101. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments.

Tags: 2016 Presidential Election, 270 to Win, Electoral College, Electoral Map, Hillary vs. Trump Electoral Map