Posted tagged ‘2016 Presidential Election’

2016 Presidential Election: Let’s Look At The Electoral College Map

November 3, 2016

United States Electoral Map - Vector Illustration of United States map with projected electoral states. Each of the states are grouped into separate, stroked shapes which can be easily edited.

The electoral college is what you need to look at to understand how the 2016 Trump vs. Hillary presidential election will turn out.

To win the presidency a candidate needs 270 electoral votes. When a candidate wins the popular vote in a particular state, he wins all the electoral votes from that state. The amount of electoral votes for each state is the sum of the congressional districts in each state plus the amount of Senators from each state which is 2.

I’ve looked at the last 4 presidential elections to see a pattern on how each state votes. There are solid Democrat and Republican states that are pretty much locks to vote the same way this year. Here is the list of these states and the number of electoral votes for each.

Vote Democrat

Washington -12, Oregon -7, California -55, Minnesota -10, Illinois -20, New York -29, Massachusetts -11, Connecticut -7, Rhode Island -4, New Jersey -14, Delaware -3, Maryland -10, Vermont -3, Maine -4, Hawaii -4, D.C. -3, Michigan -16, Wisconsin -10, Pennsylvania -20.

Total of 242 electoral votes. Need 28 to win.

Vote Republican

Texas -38, Louisiana -8, Mississippi -6, Alabama -9, Tennessee -11, Kentucky -8, West Virginia -5,  Arkansas -6, Missouri -10, Oklahoma -7, Kansas -6, Nebraska -5, South Dakota,-3, North Dakota -3, Montana -3, Idaho -4, Utah -6, Arizona -11,  Alaska -3, Indiana -11, South Carolina -9, Georgia -16,

Total of 188 electoral votes. Need 82 to win.

As you can see the Democrats have a built-in edge in winning every Presidential election.

Solid States That Could Possibly Be Flipped

I see three states for Democrats and three states for Republicans that you need to look at on election night to see how the election will turn out. These are the states in italics above. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania for the Dems, and Indiana, Georgia, and South Carolina for the Reps. If these states are really close, or vote opposite of the party they voted for the last 4 years, you will have an idea of how the election is going to turn out. If any of the other solid states go the other way, you’ll know who is going to win. But I don’t see any of the non italicized states flipping.

Marginal States

If the solid states stay with their party, we can now look at the marginal states to get an idea of how things are trending. There are three states that lean Democrat, and one state that leans Republican.

These states are New Hampshire -4, New Mexico -5, and Iowa -6, leaning Democrat. North Carolina -15, leans Republican.

Once again, if some of these states vote for the other party you have an idea how the election is going. I think Iowa could possibly go Republican.

If these states go the way they leaning, the Democrat candidate would have 257 electoral votes. He would only need 13 votes to win. The Republican candidate would have 203 electoral votes. He would need 67 to win.

Toss Up States

Florida -29, Ohio -18, Virginia -13, Colorado -9, and Nevada -6, are the 5 toss-up states that have voted for the presidential winner in the last 4 presidential elections, meaning they have voted twice for Dems and twice for Reps.

Since the Democrats would only need 13 electoral votes to win, if they take one from the group of Florida, Ohio, or Virginia they win. Even if they lose those three states, if they win both Colorado and Nevada they win.

The Republicans must win Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. If they sweep those three they still need to win either Colorado or Nevada to win the presidency.

What To Look For?

When you watch the election returns next Tuesday night, look for the toss-up and marginal states where the polls close at 7:00 or 7:30 eastern standard time. These states are New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. If these states early results show a trend toward one side or the other, or if these states are called early for one side or the other, you will know how the election will turn out and will be able to go to bed early.

Conclusion

No one knows how this is going to turn out because this is such a different kind of election. On the one hand you have a political insider who is playing the game of politics according to Hoyle. On the other hand you have a wild card with no political experience who isn’t playing the game of politics according to Hoyle. Anything can, and probably will, happen in these next five days. So buckle up and hold on tight.

 

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Victor Davis Hanson: American Empire, Immigration Policy, The 2016 Election

November 1, 2016

Here is a video you should watch before next Tuesday’s election. Victor Davis Hanson talks with Peter Robinson in this segment on Uncommon Knowledge from the Hoover Institute.

Is America an imperialist nation? Is there danger if American influence declines on the world stage? What about China, Iran, Russia? Is an open border immigration policy beneficial as compared to what American immigration policy was in the early 1900’s? What are our choices in the 2016 election? Victor Davis Hanson gives great insight in the answers to these questions.

Excerpts from the video:

On American Empire: “We are a funny sort of empire. By every calculus we should be empirical. That’s what people do. They try to aggrandize their land, their territory, their natural resources…….We don’t take people’s land. We have an empirical order, but it’s a post WWII order in which we set the rules and the terms of commerce and trade. We’ve allow Japan or Germany or China with much less military power than us to beat us economically…….Americans are endowed with an exceptional moral sense. We are a generous people, whose checkered imperial interventions in the past rarely proved profitable or exploitive.

“75 years after WWII is an aberration in world history. Peace is a parenthesis….and war is the natural order of things and in a vacuum of American power were going to see that very quickly.”

On Immigration: (starts at 21:21) “Historically there’s three elements to immigration that adjudicates whether it failed or was successful. 1) Is it diverse? Do people come from all over or do they just come from a specific area? 2) Is it measured? Does an immigrant come in and meet ten natives? do they learn to assimilate and integrate and intermarry, or do they come in mass and create enclaves? 3) Do they come under some legal auspices? Is it meritocratic? Do they learn the language?”

“If the conditions are met as it has been mostly in Americas history, than it works wonderfully. It enriches the body politic. The people are invigorated by these new people who want to be American more than they do.”

“It has to be diverse so one particular group is not used by domestic political parties for their own electoral calculations as happened in the 19th century.”

On Obama The Divider: (starts at 27:05) “President Obama has systematically adopted a rhetoric and an agenda that is predicated on dividing up the country according to tribal grievances, in hopes of recalibrating various factions into a majority grievance culture. He has succeeded politically. but in doing so he has nearly torn the country apart.”

“When the President came into office he did things that I hadn’t seen in my lifetime. I’ve never heard a presidential candidate say “typical white person”….Woodrow Wilson was the last president to identify that strongly with race...”

On Hillary And Trump: (starts at 30:18) “….The Clinton’s have offered something that no ex-president had ever offered….He had a spouse who he said would be back in here. He said she’s a viable presidential candidate in a way that no other first ladies ever were, and I’m going to be back here with her as defacto President, and therefore you better invest in her as Secretary of State through this foundation and we’re going to remember. That’s the font of all their ethical problems. They had a premise that was predicated on selling influence for money.”

The elites can’t stand Trump and he should be down by 20 points. But he’s not. He represents an anger at a much over used word elites. Elites are people who, not just by money, basically have a utopian vision that they feel does not apply to themselves. And they have the money culture and influence to navigate around the ramifications of their own ideology. What do I mean by that? Mark Zuckerberg lectures all of us about how a wall is bad and then builds a wall or tries to build a Maginot line around his own home. Or were told how terrible charter schools are, and Obama puts his kids in Sidwell Friends……Trump is Hillary Clinton’s worst nightmare, he’s a vampire’s mirror for the Republican establishment.”

 

Related ArticleWho Are Those Darn Elites, at victorhanson.com.

Related ArticleFrom Greek Tragedy To American Therapy, at victorhanson.com.